business

Spending growth for physician services rebounding

■ Health care spending dampened during the economic downturn, but a report suggests that demand for care is on the upswing.

By Victoria Stagg Elliott — Posted Dec. 20, 2011

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Though recent studies have noted declines in patient traffic to physicians -- even by the insured -- a Thomson Reuters analysis says the trend appears to be reversing.

The Thomson Reuters Healthcare Spending Index for Private Insurance, released Nov. 29, found that spending on physician services increased 3.5% in the second quarter of 2011 over the same quarter in 2010. The total was up 1% from the first quarter of 2011 (link).

The annual rate was below the overall per-capita growth in health expenses of 4.3%. The amount of money spent by insurers and patients increased 6.4% for hospital care and 0.9% for prescription drugs.

This index is based on an analysis of the insurance claims of more than 12 million employees and dependents. It expresses spending growth as a measure based on a value of 100 in 2002. For the second quarter of 2011, the physician index was 160, compared with the overall health index of 167.

Several surveys have suggested that physician office visits have been declining. For instance, a Kaiser Family Foundation analysis released Nov. 15 found that doctor visits by insured patients dipped 17% during the previous two years.

Meanwhile, a report released Oct. 12 by J.P. Morgan Chase analyst John Rex showed an 8% decline in office visits per full-time equivalent physician for September 2011 compared with a year earlier. The report is based on data from Thomson Reuters Healthcare and Rex's estimates.

Still, the health care spending index is a sign that patient traffic is picking up after a nearly three-year decline in the physician spending inflation rate, said Gary Pickens, PhD, chief research officer of the Thomson Reuters Center for Healthcare Analytics.

"There was a trough reflecting a slowdown in utilization, but we are starting to see an increase again," he said. Though the index does not measure whether more patients are seeing their doctors -- it only measures money spent -- Pickens said he believes that is happening.

Medical care inflation increased 3.1% from October 2010 to October 2011, according to the consumer price index released Nov. 16 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The price of professional services, a category that includes physicians, went up 2.2%. Hospital care grew by 4.9%.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION

Recent quarters show health spending on upswing

Click to see data in PDF.

The Thomson Reuters Healthcare Spending Index for Private Insurance tracks expenditures by those who have commercial coverage. The index generally has gone up since the baseline of 100 was set in the fourth quarter of 2002, although growth recently slowed. The annual percent change in the index is broken down by quarter. Figures for July 1, 2010, and afterward are preliminary.

Change in health care spending index
Quarter beginning	Total	Hospital	Physician	Drug
10/1/2003	8.5%	11.6%	6.0%	6.9%
1/1/2004	8.5%	10.7%	6.1%	8.3%
4/1/2004	7.9%	8.7%	6.1%	9.2%
7/1/2004	7.3%	7.1%	6.4%	9.5%
10/1/2004	6.8%	5.4%	6.5%	10.1%
1/1/2005	6.6%	6.0%	6.4%	7.9%
4/1/2005	7.2%	7.9%	6.8%	6.4%
7/1/2005	7.4%	9.0%	6.8%	5.2%
10/1/2005	7.6%	9.6%	7.1%	4.6%
1/1/2006	7.3%	8.3%	7.6%	4.6%
4/1/2006	6.6%	6.6%	7.6%	4.8%
7/1/2006	6.0%	5.4%	7.5%	4.8%
10/1/2006	5.8%	4.8%	7.7%	5/0%
1/1/2007	5.0%	4.5%	6.1%	4.4%
4/1/2007	4.6%	4.6%	5.2%	3.2%
7/1/2007	4.3%	4.9%	4.7%	2.7%
10/1/2007	4.0%	5.1%	3.8%	2.1%
1/1/2008	4.9%	6.0%	4.9%	2.9%
4/1/2008	5.8%	6.6%	5.7%	4.1%
7/1/2008	7.2%	8.2%	7.1%	5.3%
10/1/2008	8.1%	9.0%	8.0%	6.4%
1/1/2009	7.3%	8.8%	6.8%	5.2%
4/1/2009	7.4%	9.4%	6.4%	4.9%
7/1/2009	6.6%	9.0%	5.4%	4.0%
10/1/2009	6.6%	9.4%	5.1%	3.5%
1/1/2010	6.3%	9.0%	4.8%	3.3%
4/1/2010	5.0%	7.5%	3.7%	2.1%
7/1/2010	4.1%	6.3%	2.9%	1.4%
10/1/2010	3.0%	5.1%	2.2%	-0.3%
1/1/2011	3.5%	5.6%	2.8%	0.3%
4/1/2011	4.3%	6.4%	3.5%	0.9%